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U.S. December Jobs Creation ‘Weakish’, But Construction Compensation Bullish

Alex Carrick
U.S. December Jobs Creation ‘Weakish’, But Construction Compensation Bullish

U.S. net total jobs creation in the final month of last year was a tepid +148,000, according to the latest Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The ‘weakish’ December result caused the monthly average throughout all 2017 to pull back slightly to +171,000.

2018-01-05-US-Labor-Graphic

Just the same, +171,000 as a monthly average in 2017 signifies a more than satisfactory performance, although it was down from 2016’s comparable figure of +187,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate in December remained the same as in November, at an exceptionally tight 4.1%.

The seasonally adjusted (SA) number of U.S. construction jobs recorded a nice gain in December of +30,000. Such a substantial increase in employment for on-site workers was the biggest leap since February 2017’s +54,000.

Construction’s average monthly gain in jobs in 2017 was +18,000, which compared favorably with 2016’s average monthly rise of +13,000.

The latest monthly construction jobs hike centered mainly in residential (+10,000) and non-residential (+14,000) specialty trade contracting.

But the biggest news for construction lay in the compensation figures. For all construction workers, including supervisory personnel, average weekly earnings soared +4.0% year over year, the best gain for that ‘metric’ since December 2015’s +4.0%.

For construction workers excluding bosses, the average weekly earnings climb was an even more impressive +4.7%. The last time +4.7% was matched or exceeded occurred in September 2016, at +5.2%.

Year-over-year hourly earnings for construction workers in December were +3.0% including bosses and +3.1% leaving out bosses.  

Wages for all U.S. workers economy-wide, however, continued to be subdued in the latest month. Including supervisory personnel, average hourly earnings were +2.5% and average weekly earnings, +2.8%.

Omitting bosses, average hourly earnings for all workers were +2.3% and average weekly earnings, +2.9%.

The bottom line is that wage gains for most jobs are still meeting resistance at the +3.0% level.    

Another sector registering significant month-to-month jobs growth in the latest month was manufacturing, +25,000. Over the past five months, production-line firms have expanded their payrolls by +132,000 jobs.

Monthly average manufacturing sector employment in 2017 was +16,000. In the prior year, 2016, manufacturing sector employment stayed flat, on average, throughout the 12 months.  

Other major industrial sub-sectors with sizable month-to-month jobs hikes in December were ‘leisure and hospitality’, +29,000, and ‘education and health services’, +28,000. The former was particularly bolstered by ‘food services and drinking places’, +25,000, while the latter was all driven by ‘health care and social assistance’.

Within health care, ‘ambulatory services’, 15,000, and ‘hospitals’, +12,000, provided the hiring momentum.  

‘Professional and business services’ jobs creation in the latest month was disappointing, only +19,000. Employment in ‘accounting and bookkeeping services’ took an especially bad turn, -15,000.

On average in 2017, ‘professional and business services’ provided +44,000 net new jobs each month, exactly the same as in 2016.

Shocking on the downside in December was a -20,000 month-to-month jobs performance in the retail trade sector. The contraction in staffing at ‘general merchandise stores’ was -27,000. But keep in mind that the foregoing two declines are expressed in seasonally adjusted (SA) numbers.

Thanks to gift-giving over the winter-break holiday season, December is the busiest shopkeeper month of the year. The month-to-month not seasonally adjusted (NSA) retail trade employment number in December 2017 was +59,000.   

Canada’s Unemployment Rate Lowest since 1976

North of the border, December was another banner month for employment, according to Statistics Canada. The latest Labour Force Survey records a shrinkage in the unemployment rate from 5.9% in November to 5.7% in December.

December’s 5.7% jobless level is the lowest since January 1976, over fifty years ago.

Net total jobs creation in Canada in December was +79,000, coming directly on the heels of +80,000 in November. The latest two months have generated nearly +160,000 new jobs, a stunningly upbeat increase. The December 2017 over December 2016 climb in total jobs in Canada was +423,000.

By comparison, America’s December 2017 over December 2016 addition to total jobs was +2.1 million − but the population of the U.S. is nine times bigger than Canada’s.

Part-time work in Canada soared in December, +55,000, but the increase in full-time work was also respectable, +24,000. At the same time, the private sector was more active in hiring than the public sector, +57,000 compared with +22,000.

Canadian construction employment in December was +7,000 month to month, while manufacturing employment was -4,000.

On a year-over-year basis, manufacturing employment has made more headway than construction employment, +85,000 compared with +51,000.

Regionally, every province saw a drop in its unemployment rate in December 2017 relative to the same month of the year before. Quebec (moving from 6.5% in December 2016 to 4.9% in December 2017) and Alberta (from 8.5% to 6.9%) had the greatest improvements.  

It’s British Columbia, however, that can boast of having the lowest jobless rate in the land, at 4.6%.

As for year-over-year jobs growth, the leaders among the provinces have been: Prince Edward Island, +3.9%; B.C., +3.4%; and Ontario, +2.5%.

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