The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes From the Trenches - May 13, 2020

There are currently two crises underway simultaneously. The advance of the novel coronavirus is taking a terrible toll in terms of physical and emotional well-being. At the same time, job losses resulting from ‘social distancing’ are sending the economy into a tailspin. To fight on both fronts, governments are advancing rescue packages of never-seen-before dimensions. Every day, the tremendous number of factors in play reconfigure in a new way. These ‘from the trenches’ notes attempt to shed some light along a murky pathway.

• Spoiler alert: Don’t read the following two bullet points unless you’re okay with learning the outcome. The Kentucky Derby race for three-year-old horses is always held on the first Saturday in May. Well, that’s not entirely correct. In 1945, in the final days of the war effort, it was delayed until June. Then in this year, 2020, it’s also been postponed, until September 5, for only the second time ever. In its time slot in early May, NBC Sports broadcast a virtual race between 13 former Triple Crown Winners.

• The ‘Run for the Roses’ at Churchill Downs is called the most exciting two minutes in sports. Did that still hold true this year, when there wasn’t really anything on the line and the finish was governed by a set of algorithms based on past performances? It’s your call. Perhaps you were watching on May 2nd. If not, you can catch a replay of the broadcast on YouTube. I’ve seen it and even as a CGI event, nothing’s quite as nail-biting as a ‘final stretch’ run, especially when it features win, place and show positions captured by Secretariat, Citation and Seattle Slew ‒ equine royalty.

• ‘Road trips’ are expected to be the most popular form of vacation this summer. Gas is cheap and everyone’s antsy to break free from house bondage. Also, while ‘hitting the highways’, it will be easy to maintain a good measure of ‘social distancing’. But do suppress thoughts of stopping where crowds might congregate. It’s about time, anyway, for the question, “Are we there yet?” to be legitimately exorcised from the language.

• Continuing with what seems to be a theme of this article, ‘roses’, the Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and founding member of the hard rock band Guns N’ Roses, Axl Rose, have been conducting a spirited debate on social media about whether Americans really should head out this summer to see America. The former endorses the notion; the latter suggests it may be a questionable idea during a pandemic. I’m not mentioning this to perpetuate the argument. Rather, I’d just like to clear my head of the words, ‘Steve Mnuchin and Axl Rose in Twitter Spat’.  

Read the previous article here: The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes from the Trenches – May 12, 2020.

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985. Links to his numerous articles are featured on Twitter @ConstructConnx, which has 50,000 followers.