Tariffs could lead to 160,000 job losses in second quarter: Conference Board

TORONTO — The Conference Board of Canada says U.S. tariff pressure will likely mean a sizable hit to jobs and the economy in the quarter ahead. 

The research group says that, assuming the tariffs and Canadian countermeasures stay in place for the whole second quarter, the economy could shrink by 5.4 per cent on an annualized basis and around 160,000 people could lose their job. 

It says about half of the job losses will be in manufacturing as automotive exports drop by over 50 per cent and overall real exports fall by a third.

The Conference Board says the trade actions will also push inflation higher to 2.9 per cent in the quarter, but that weaker consumer confidence will help temper pricing pressure.

While there’s widespread uncertainty about the future of tariffs, the Conference Board is forecasting that tariffs will be lifted by the start of the third quarter to help lead to a notable 3.9 per cent economic expansion and a pickup in hiring.

It says its outlook for 2025 as a whole sees the economy expand by 0.9 per cent, down from its 1.5 per cent outlook a few months ago before the tariff threat materialized. 

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