Forecaster Charts & Tables

Inflation

Inflation that becomes excessive drives up interest rates, fueling the cost of future construction projects.

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Inflation Measures (Year over Year) U.S. and Canada

The key figure on U.S. inflation studied by the Federal Reserve is the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), excluding food & energy. In Feb 2021, it was +1.4% y/y. ---- The Bank of Canada monitors 3 'preferred' measures of core inflation, 'common', 'median' and 'trim'. Year over year, in Feb 2021, they were +1.3%, +2.0% and +1.9% respectively.

(Previous Month & Current Month – January & February 2021)
*’Core’ inflation for both countries excludes highly price-volatile items − i.e., mainly food & energy products.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Statistics Canada / Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

U.S. vs Canada Core* Inflation (CPI Core & CPI-U Less Food and Energy)

Worth noting is that the 'core' rates of inflation for the entire duration shown in the graph, and for both the U.S. and Canada, have never dropped to zero, not even in slowdowns/recessions (2001; 2008-09; and 2020-onward).

Latest data points are for February, 2021.
*Core is all-items inflation less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.

Sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Based on not seasonally adjusted/NSA index values.)
Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

U.S. vs Canada All-Items Inflation (CPI & CPI-U)

In non-CPI pricing news, Statistics Canada's New Housing Price Index (NHPI) for single-family homes in Feb 2021 was +7.0% y/y. In America, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)'s latest selling price index for existing single-family homes was +11.4% y/y (Dec 20/Dec 19).

Latest data points are for February, 2021.
Based on not seasonally adjusted (aka NSA) index values.

Data sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

Canada Inflation: All Items CPI vs Core* (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In Canada, the February 2021 year-over-year change in the energy sub-component index was +2.4%. Gasoline was +5.0% y/y (and +6.5% m/m NSA).

The latest data points are for February 2021.
The Canada figure (CPI) is the All Items Consumer Price Index.
*Core inflation is CPI-U less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.

Data source: Statistics Canada / Chart: ConstructConnect — CanaData.

U.S. Inflation: All Items (CPI-U) vs All Items Less Food & Energy (i.e., ‘Core’*) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In the U.S., the February 2021 year-over-year change in the energy sub-component index was +2.4%. Gasoline was +1.5% y/y (and +6.9% m/m NSA).

The latest data points are for February 2021.
The U.S. figure (CPI-U) is the All Items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
*Core inflation is CPI-U less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).

Chart: ConstructConnect — CanaData.