Forecaster Charts & Tables

Inflation

Inflation that becomes excessive drives up interest rates, fueling the cost of future construction projects.

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Inflation Measures (Year over Year) U.S. and Canada

The key inflation figure monitored by the U.S. Fed is the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), excluding food & energy. In July 2021, it was +3.5% y/y. The Bank of Canada monitors 3 'preferred' measures of core inflation, 'common', 'median' & 'trim'. Year over year, in July 2021, they were +1.7%, +2.6% & +3.1% respectively (avg = +2.5%).

(Previous Month & Current Month – June & July 2021)
*’Core’ inflation for both countries excludes highly price-volatile items − i.e., mainly food & energy products.

Data sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Statistics Canada / Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

U.S. vs Canada Core* Inflation (CPI Core & CPI-U Less Food and Energy)

Worth noting is that the 'core' rates of inflation for the entire duration shown in the graph, and for both the U.S. and Canada, have never dropped to zero, not even in slowdowns/recessions (2001; 2008-09; and 2020).

Latest data points are for July 2021.
*Core is all-items inflation less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.

Sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Based on not seasonally adjusted/NSA index values.)
Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

U.S. vs Canada All-Items Inflation (CPI & CPI-U)

In non-CPI news, there's plenty of 'sticker price shock' to be found in residential real estate. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index in the U.S. was +16.0% y/y in May. The %-change north of the border, but for July, was similar according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), +15.6% y/y.

Latest data points are for July 2021.
Based on not seasonally adjusted (aka NSA) index values.

Data sources: Statistics Canada and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Chart: ConstructConnect-CanaData.

Canada Inflation: All Items CPI vs Core* (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In Canada, the July 2021 changes in the energy sub-component index were +19.7% y/y & +2.6% m/m (NSA). Gasoline was +30.9% y/y & +3.5% m/m (NSA).

The latest data points are for July 2021.
The Canada figure (CPI) is the All Items Consumer Price Index.
*Core inflation is CPI-U less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.

Data source: Statistics Canada / Chart: ConstructConnect — CanaData.

U.S. Inflation: All Items (CPI-U) vs All Items Less Food & Energy (i.e., ‘Core’*) (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In the U.S., the July 2021 changes in the energy sub-component index were +23.8% y/y & +1.7% m/m (NSA). Gasoline was +41.8% y/y & +2.5% m/m (NSA).

The latest data points are for July 2021.
The U.S. figure (CPI-U) is the All Items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.
*Core inflation is CPI-U less its often most volatile sub-components, food and energy.
Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Department of Labor).

Chart: ConstructConnect — CanaData.