Now comes the hard part. The international accord reached in Paris a week ago marked the beginning of a worldwide transition away from carbon-based economies, but it matters only if it really spurs change at a scale we have never seen before. All the congratulatory speeches, all the warm, fuzzy feelings can’t disguise the fact that the accord doesn’t really represent an ultimate solution to climate change and the problems it brings. Instead, it represents a roadmap to follow for the next 10 to 15 years.
Key decisions still lie ahead of us. For example, we will ultimately have to face the problem of scrubbing carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and storing it somewhere else. For the construction industry, the accord doesn’t necessarily mean sweeping changes. Instead it likely means building upon practices that have been developed over the past dozen or so years.
Think of LEED. When the idea was new, it seemed like a radical change for many in the industry. But before long, it had simply become the way buildings are designed and built. Think of NetZero energy buildings. People (including me) were skeptical at first, believing that, especially in the colder parts of Canada, NetZero buildings were just not possible. They’re still not common, but they have been built; the concept has been proven. Now we just have to go ahead and build. So the industry will see more emphasis on energy, which means more LEED buildings, more NetZero buildings, more energy retrofits of older buildings. And more emphasis on the way we build.
Modular construction is a building technique that hasn’t gained much traction in Canada. But it could now be an idea whose time has come. Modular construction means that building elements can be assembled indoors, where everything can be controlled, including the temperature. Workers can be more productive in a warm environment, jobsite waste can be virtually eliminated, assembly can be quicker. Then, on the building site, modules can be simply lifted into place. The role of architects will become even more important than it is now. They’re the bridge between what the client asks for and what the contractor builds, so they will be trying to point their clients toward more sustainable, more energy-efficient buildings. Look for city and provincial governments to place more emphasis on things like improved public transit to help get cars off the road. Cities will be planning more walkable communities and more infill development to increase population densities. All these are things that are already being done. The Paris accord will mean we’ll just be seeing more of them. There will be more emphasis on alternative energy sources — wind, solar and, where feasible, geothermal. Expect governments to try to move us toward more nuclear energy, although environmental lobbyists will be in opposition.
Expect more research in green materials, including, but not limited to, the research in "green" concrete. Look, too, for more timber construction, including cross-laminated timber members in tall buildings. New editions of building codes will have to accommodate the drive to restrict global warming. If all this sounds fairly simple, rest assured it won’t be. The deniers among us will continue to dispute the very existence of climate change, no matter what science tells them. People wedded to "the old ways" will need to be cajoled into doing things "the new way." There will be a price on carbon, although we don’t know yet what form it will take. The best of the proposals might mean a revenue-neutral carbon tax, such as the one that has proven successful in British Columbia.
But there will be costs, and resistance, and doubt. They’re inevitable anytime that important changes are made. That’s why we must hold our governments to the promises made in Paris. We cannot, must not, squander the progress made there.
Korky Koroluk is a regular freelance contributor to the Journal of Commerce. Send comments or questions to editor@journalofcommerce.com.
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