The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes From the Trenches

There are currently two crises underway simultaneously. The advance of the novel coronavirus is taking a terrible toll in terms of physical and emotional well-being. At the same time, job losses resulting from ‘social distancing’ are sending the economy into a tailspin. To fight on both fronts, governments are advancing rescue packages of never-seen-before dimensions. Every day, the tremendous number of factors in play reconfigure in a new way. These ‘from the trenches’ notes attempt to shed some light along a murky pathway.

OxBlue is a company that sells live-feed cameras for construction sites, to monitor worker movements and equipment flows, to guard against theft, and to record daily progress for contractors and owners ‒ sometimes letting the public in on the spectacle as well, by means of an Internet link ‒ as structures take shape.

With the onset of the coronavirus crisis, many construction projects are being shunted onto sidetracks. Based on algorithms tied to what its cameras are seeing, OxBlue has calculated an index of ongoing construction activity levels across America. Presently, according to OxBlue, the six states with the sharpest declines in onsite work are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Massachusetts, Washington, New York and Ohio.

In some ways reminiscent of 2008-2009, but without the legacy pension issues, the motor vehicle sector is trying its best not to veer off the road. Realizing that jobs and incomes are under stress throughout the economy, automakers are offering never-seen-before deals, including zero percent financing for as long as seven years, and an option to postpone first payment for three-to-four months. The value of your vehicle will drop below what you still owe at some point, but that’s a worry for then, not now.

Insurance companies are also playing the rewards game, promising cash back on premium payments already made, at a time when vehicular traffic is only a fraction of what it once was, thereby reducing the risk of roadway accidents.

Saying someone’s been around the block once or twice used to suggest they had acquired some experience along the way. Now it simply means that during a half-hour breakaway from indoors isolation, and with the sidewalks and streets so clear, they took the only available course of action still open to them.

Read the previous article here: The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes from the Trenches – April 29, 2020.

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985. Links to his numerous articles are featured on Twitter @ConstructConnx, which has 50,000 followers.