The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes From the Trenches

There are currently two crises underway simultaneously. The advance of the novel coronavirus is taking a terrible toll in terms of physical and emotional well-being. At the same time, job losses resulting from ‘social distancing’ are sending the economy into a tailspin. To fight on both fronts, governments are advancing rescue packages of never-seen-before dimensions. Every day, the tremendous number of factors in play reconfigure in a new way. These ‘from the trenches’ notes attempt to shed some light along a murky pathway.

On the far side of this pandemic-induced economic freeze, how much will pervasive worrying about a second (or even third) wave of coronavirus infections slow the recovery? Current speculation is that even if COVID-19 runs its course through the spring and early summer, it might roar again when the warmer weather begins to chill in the fall. (Some viruses thrive more in cooler rather than warmer environments.)

If there are next waves, each one is likely to be less severe and of shorter duration than the current one, since by then the supply of medical gear (ventilators, etc.) will have been vastly expanded. Also, a great deal of experience will have been gained in how best to deal with the silent and invisible intrusion.

Whether there are next waves or not, until there is widespread dissemination of an effective vaccine, there will almost certainly be intermittent city or regional flare-ups … or ‘hot spots’, as they are also being called.

A good news story has bubbled up from the hospitality sector. There are reports of hotels located near hospitals making unoccupied rooms available to medical staff for ‘getting away from it all’ breaks and ‘transitioning from work to home’ breaks. They’re often doing this at low cost or no charge to hospital administrations. The present ratio of unused-to-available hotel rooms nationally is said to be as high as 80%.

By the time you’ve reached day 50 of your sequestration, is it possible you’ll be thinking a telemarketing call from that charming lady or man who wants to discuss duct cleaning with you would be nice right about now? Or is there no degree of isolation that could turn the ignition on that old jalopy?

Read the previous article here: The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes from the Trenches – April 13, 2020.

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985. Links to his numerous articles are featured on Twitter @ConstructConnx, which has 50,000 followers.