TORONTO — Urbanation Inc. recently released its Q1 2024 Condominium Market Survey results which found the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) new condominium market reported 1,461 sales in Q1 2024, the lowest quarterly total since the global financial crisis in Q1 2009 (884 sales).
Outside of that brief period in early 2009, new condominium sales haven’t been this low since the late-1990s, said Urbanation, which provides information and analysis on the condominium market.
It states sales were down 71 per cent when compared to the latest 10-year average for Q1 periods (4,978 sales), dropping 85 per cent from the Q1 high in 2022 (9,723 sales).
According to the survey, developers dramatically pulled back on new launches in early 2024, with only four projects totalling 958 units brought to market in the first quarter. Three out of the four projects launched in the GTHA during Q1 were in the 905 region, resulting in an average opening price for new condos of $1,168 per square foot — down 12 per cent from Q4-2023 and a 17 per cent drop from the record high in Q1-2023 ($1,407).
The survey also found:
- Unsold inventory across all stages of development dipped two per cent quarterly from the record high in Q4 2023 to 23,815 units in Q1 2024, equal to a high of 22.8 months of supply. In the past year, unsold new condominium supply increased 30 per cent, rising 124 per cent over the past two years.
- As of Q1 2024, the City of Toronto (416 region) had unsold new condo inventory equal to 30.6 months of supply. In the 905 region, supply was equal to 16.8 months.
- On average, projects in pre-construction during Q1 2024 were 50 per cent presold, down from a 61 per cent average absorption level a year ago and 85 per cent two years earlier. With pre-construction sales falling well below typical construction financing requirements of at least 70 per cent absorption, construction starts have experienced a sharp decline.
- In Q1 2024, 2,361 new condominiums began construction in the GTHA, down 52 per cent annually. At the same time, completions surged to a record high of 12,132 units in Q1 2024, causing the total number of condos under construction to fall to a more than two-year low 91,590 units.
Since the market began slowing in 2022, Urbanation has counted 60 projects to date totalling 21,505 units in the GTHA that were slated for launch and began releasing promotional material but have put their plans on hold indefinitely.
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