Federal consultants are recommending that the Liberal government accelerate its plans to decarbonize federal buildings in the National Capital Region with a more aggressive schedule of deep energy retrofits.
Modelling prepared by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and two other consultants who are developing a Roadmap to Low-Carbon Operations in the National Capital Region (NCR) for Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC) found that decarbonizing the federal government building portfolio in the NCR is technically and economically feasible over the next three decades.
Combined with deep energy retrofits, heating electrification of the building stock would cost $850 million more than building upgrades planned for between 2020 and 2050 while saving about $700 million in energy costs and nearly eliminating emissions.
The cost premium of $150 million is “a drop in the bucket,” the modelling finds, compared with how much the government already spends on building operations.
RMI principal Phil Keuhn discussed a blog RMI published recently that expands upon the roadmap document, which is still being reviewed by government agencies.
He said the consultants believe to achieve much lower carbon emissions in the government’s NCR portfolio, it will have to undertake “a huge increase in retrofit rates compared to business as usual. And what we’ve done is, we went and identified investment strategies at the individual building level so that it’s much more specific.”
The blog noted concerns that the major push for electrification through the use of renewables carries the risk of overloading the grid, causing blackouts. But by aggressively moving ahead with deep energy efficiency retrofits, it’s possible to avoid an increase in electrification demand and demand peaks on the electric grid.
The switch from fossil fuels is an essential part of the equation, Keuhn explained. In 2016, 60 per cent of emissions from the federal government’s operations in the NCR came from buildings, most of it from burning natural gas for heating.
“We are recommending moving away from directly burning fossil fuel in buildings,” he said. “And the reason is you really can’t meet the carbon goals that the government established so you have to get away from that.”
The switch to electrification combined with the deep retrofits is not only cost effective and “an important thing to do” to help the government reach its decarbonization goals, Keuhn said, it makes the buildings more reliable, more resilient and more comfortable as well as delivering lower carbon emissions.
“And you’ve improved the envelope, you have a new HVDC (electrical) system that has much better control, better lighting.”
The blog notes nearly 50 per cent of the government’s building floor area in the NCR is classified as “in poor or critical condition” and thus seriously in need of upgrading anyway.
The switch from natural gas to electric heat pumps that use the air, water or ground as a heat source or sink is more workable than previously because of advances in heat pump technology.
RMI used its Portfolio Energy Optimizing platform to aggregate over 200 government buildings in the NCR and create models for different types of heat pump applications, high-performance thermal envelopes and energy efficiency upgrades tailored for the retrofit needs of each building. Further modelling by its co-consultants whatIf? and SSG resulted in assessments of energy consumption and emissions across the entire building portfolio out to 2050.
“The building-specific analysis really comes into play to develop a customized roadmap for that property that makes the most sense relative to those goals,” Keuhn said.
The buildings on the Gatineau, Que. side tend to be run on cleaner Quebec hydroelectric power while some in Ontario still use natural gas for heating.
“You really get a radical drop in carbon emissions the second you move from fossil fuel to electricity in that portfolio. In some ways I thought of that portfolio analysis as looking into the future for a lot of other areas because that’s really what we’re hoping the electricity grid will transition to when it comes to carbon emissions in other areas as well,” he explained.
Discussions so far have reached across 33 departments and agencies, Keuhn said.
Roadmapping is usually done at a high level, without extensive delivery details, so moving the conversation into models of what should be done to each building and when is being welcomed by the PSPC.
“It really helps enrich the conversation they have on how to move to the next step,” he said.
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