Overall, the global construction industry has a mixed forecast for the rest of 2024. According to the Atradius Group, global construction activity this year will likely increase by 2.2% in developing countries and by 1.8% in developed countries.
However, major heavy machinery manufacturers Caterpillar and Komatsu expect declining profits compared to 2023.
Large-scale government spending and private investments in infrastructure, including roads, trains, airports, ports, and urban mobility projects, will drive industry growth this year. Demand for a dependable energy supply and government commitments to decarbonization will also result in the construction of new projects.
Significant investments in manufacturing, especially in the technology sector, are another major driver. This year, mega factories and data centers are projected to be built in North America, Latin America, and Europe.
However, a construction decline is anticipated in several European countries and Australia, as many projects are on hold due to higher costs brought on by inflation, rising interest rates, and a shortage of workers.
Despite a solid outlook for the sector, major manufacturers of heavy construction equipment Caterpillar and Komatsu are experiencing challenges. With a strong dealer network and financial services division, Caterpillar has a varied product portfolio and a significant international presence. However, the company is facing increasing operating costs and decreasing profitability.
In quarter two of 2024, Caterpillar’s revenues decreased by 4% to $16.7 billion from $17.3 billion in the same quarter of 2023. Lower sales volumes were the main cause of the decline, although cushioned by higher sales prices. In the second quarter of 2024, the operating profit margin was 20.9%, down from 21.1% during the same period in 2023, indicating decreased profitability.
Additionally, profit per share in quarter two of 2024 decreased to $5.46, as opposed to $5.67 in the same quarter last year.
Caterpillar anticipates relatively lower revenues in the third quarter of 2024. However, profitability in the third quarter is forecast to remain intact year over year. Yahoo Finance predicts Caterpillar’s revenue to be $16.8 billion in the next quarter. 15 Yahoo analysts forecast the company’s annual revenue to grow from 2024 to 2025, with the current year’s revenue to be around $65.3 billion, moving to $67.2 billion for the following year.
Like Caterpillar, Komatsu is a major player in the construction industry, specializing in industrial hydraulic equipment. Komatsu’s annual revenue as of June 2024 was around $26.2 billion USD, 1.9% more than the consensus projection made by analysts.
The Construction, Mining, and Utility Equipment segment of the company accounted for 94% of total sales in the last 12 months, delivering a total revenue figure of around $24.6 billion USD.
This partly resulted from the decline of the Yen versus the U.S. Dollar, Euro, and Australian Dollar. However, lower sales and higher costs offset the currency advantage. To increase its international expansion and future revenue, Komatsu has announced a major greenfield development in Mesa, Arizona
Komatsu’s forecast for 2024 is $2.4 billion USD in net profit, down 11.8% from the previous year. Revenue is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.6% per annum in the upcoming three years, lower than the 4.8% growth predicted for Japan’s machinery industry.
In response to the earnings announcement released during the last week of June, financial analysts at Komatsu are projecting 2025 revenues of $26.5 billion USD, roughly in line with the previous 12 months.
The construction industry’s projections for 2024 are generally positive but somewhat dampened by lower profit forecasts from major construction equipment manufacturers. Firms like Caterpillar and Komatsu are seeing lower profits due to growing costs and competitive pressure.
However, global construction activity is anticipated to expand due to government investments and higher demand from the energy and tech industries. In the upcoming year, it will be essential for the construction industry to adjust to changing market conditions to sustain its growth.
Dmytro Konovalov has over 10 years of experience in equity research and analysis for global markets at leading international financial institutions.
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