It may not be completely smooth sailing for Quebec, but its projected forecast from BuildForce Canada is relatively positive overall for both the residential and non-residential sectors.
That’s one main finding from the association’s 2025–2034 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for the province.
When it comes to 2024, construction activity reported gains, with residential benefitting from easing interest rate pressures leading to investment rising in both new-housing and residential renovations.
The non-residential sector experienced more modest increases in both engineering construction and in the construction of ICI buildings.
The scenario for the province going forward sees investment levels stabilize in both the residential and non-residential sectors across the outlook period.
More specifically, residential housing starts are projected to decline across the forecast period, with contractions greatest among multi-unit dwellings. But the trend is offset by steady growth in residential renovation activity, which is driven by consumer preferences and the need to restore the province’s aging housing stock.
Investment in the non-residential sector is projected to remain elevated over the near term before trending downward into the early 2030s as work is completed on several major utility, transit, health care and education sector projects.
“Although activity ebbs and flows in line with major projects, overall investment remains elevated across the forecast period,” the report reads.
“By 2034, non-residential construction employment levels should remain mostly unchanged from the elevated levels reported at the start of the forecast period.”
Key projects include ongoing major health care and education projects and new projects such as the Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont modernization and the proposed new university-affiliated hospital in Gatineau.
BuildForce notes investment in the non-residential sector has been on a significant upward trend since 2020 and reached a recent peak in 2024.
Overall, construction employment is anticipated to recede across the forecast period, with the labour force potentially contracting by as many as 6,100 workers by 2034. The anticipated retirement of 49,900 workers, or 21 per cent of the 2024 labour force, translates into overall hiring requirements of 43,800 workers.
The recruiting of some 47,400 new-entrant workers under the age of 30 may lead to a labour force surplus of 3,600 workers, the report reads.
It should be noted the investment trends and employment projections by BuildForce were developed with industry input prior to the emergence of potential trade tensions between Canada and the United States.
The forecast does not take into account the possible impacts of tariffs.
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