This year’s CanaData conference will not only provide forecasts and projections for the construction industry, it will also help interpret what they mean as the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think the really big thing is we’re coming out of the pandemic. Usually there is a certain pattern that you would expect because it’s been a slowdown and a recession during the pandemic because so many parts of the economy were in distress this last year,” said Alex Carrick, chief economist of ConstructConnect and founder of the event. “You would think in some ways this would be like a normal cyclical recovery, but I would suggest that it’s not.”
He pointed to decreases in retail and employment hitting all-time lows.
“It’s not uncommon for some categories like retail to be up 40 per cent year-over-year because the number last year was so low,” said Carrick. “The growth in GDP is supposed to be something like seven per cent. How are we supposed to interpret that, because it’s really the kind of growth we’ve had before because there is such a low base.
“People are going to need extra help understanding the numbers and being cautious about interpreting them.”
The live, two-day construction forecasts webinar, Accelerating your Agility, Building in a Post-Pandemic World, will take place Tuesday, Sept. 28 and Wednesday, Sept. 29 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.
This year marks the 37th annual conference, which will focus on how economic trends, changing demographics, labour shortages, supply chain disruptions, material costing issues and deglobalization will impact businesses going forward.
The conference will provide U.S., Canadian and world economic and construction outlooks.
“The first day is the economic facts, the projections and the numbers,” Carrick said. “The second day is thinking about some of the real issues and trying to figure out what they will mean to construction. There’s a great deal of uncertainty. Uncertainty about the economic situation, uncertainty about the coronavirus situation.”
Carrick will speak on the first day of the e-conference, which will focus on the Post-Pandemic Economic Framework. He said while the residential construction sector is booming, the non-residential sector is not.
“Nobody was expecting that in a pandemic, with so many people losing their jobs, that there would be a housing boom,” said Carrick. “Canada housing starts for 20 years, from 2000 to 2020, has averaged 200,000 units per year and that’s jumped up to 300,000 units in the first half of this year. That’s just unheard of, it’s unprecedented. Another big question is when does the construction recovery change from being almost totally residential to becoming non-residential?”
He also suggests commodities could make a comeback in the Canadian economy.
“There is a whole part of the Canadian economy that has been forgotten since the last recession and that’s raw materials, the resource side of the economy,” said Carrick. “If you move to electrification that means that you need copper for the distribution systems and nickel for batteries.
“I suspect that for commodities, which have not played a role in the economy for 10 years, that’s going to be quite a dramatic shift.”
In addition to Carrick, speakers include Peter Hall, vice-president and chief economist, Export Development Canada; Timna Tanners, equity research analyst, metals and mining at Bank of America; and David Schoonjans, senior director, cost and project management, Altus Group.
The second day will focus on Re-Imagining the Construction Marketplace and includes a panel discussion entitled Addressing Labour Shortage Issues featuring Bill Ferreira, executive director, BuildForce; Lindsay Kearns, co-ordinator, BC Centre For Women in the Trades; and Henry D’Esposito, construction research lead, Jones Lang LaSalle.
“One of the issues that has been out there for a long time is the shortage of labour and there are two obvious answers,” Carrick explained. “One of them is modular construction, that’s making construction become more like manufacturing…the other one is getting more women and Indigenous people in construction.
“A lot of companies are talking about how hard it is to find workers and construction is caught up in this,” he added. “You always hear construction people saying there are all these openings but they can’t find people who will take the jobs.”
The speaker line-up for day two also includes David Coletto, CEO Abacus Data, and Mark Milke, a public policy analyst, political scientist and author.
Matt Strazza, president of ConstructConnect, will provide opening remarks on both days of the conference.
The event will provide projections to build company forecasts, presentations and Q&As. Those who attend will also receive exclusive access to industry updates throughout the year.
Visit https://canada.constructconnect.com/canadata for more information.
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