In the months to come, there is going to be a great deal of confusion and consternation as to what is happening in the U.S. jobs market.
In January, total employment in the economy rose by 143,000 positions, according to the Employment Situation report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). While being still a positive figure, it falls short of the 200,000 to 250,000 number we have become accustomed to seeing which is a firm indication that the economy is rolling along in fine fashion.
The seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rate remained exceedingly low in the latest month at 4.0%. But both the jobs creation number and the unemployment rate were measured prior to the de-hiring actions initiated by the new administration in Washington and directed at the federal government’s payroll.
Elon Musk, through DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency), and with support from the top echelons of the GOP, including President Trump, has been offering buyout packages to workers in many branches of government, plus taking steps to eliminate or vastly reduce the footprints of many agencies. The results so far have seen a contraction in staffing of about 75,000.
Some downsized individuals will continue to draw salaries until September, with the question of whether they should continue to report for work often left open. Some others are organizing legal opposition to the way in which they have lost their jobs. The resulting court challenges will likely stretch out for considerable periods of time.
Additionally, there are worries about the impacts of the possible new tariff regime targeting imports from Mexico and Canada. The stated intent is to protect and nourish the American manufacturing sector at home. It is noteworthy, though, that the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) has issued a statement in opposition to such tariffs, which are currently in a holding pattern.
NAM believes its members have made great strides in competitiveness thanks to the supply chains that have been established with producers south and north of the border. One-third of the inputs used and needed by U.S. manufacturers are sourced in Mexico and Canada.
One sentence in NAM’s release is particularly telling, ‘Ultimately, manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs, undermining our ability to sell our products at a competitive price and putting American jobs at risk.”
Therefore, the prospects for job growth as recorded in the Employment Situation report are more fraught than in the recent past. Also serving to muddy the clarity on the jobs front are the two ways in which the employment numbers can be reported.
First is the Employment Situation approach, which looks at the number of jobs in different industries, such as construction, retail, wholesale, financial services, health care, education, and government. For example, clerical staff in a general contractor’s office will be recorded as working in construction.
An alternative approach is to consider the opportunities being presented in different occupations for which, again, there is a commendable array of statistics available from public sources, with one caveat. Such information is often behind the times concerning job descriptions or labels.
Rectifying that problem is a task that has been embraced by a new and obvious data supplier, the social media site LinkedIn. Moving well beyond its ‘notice board’ days for professionals wishing to network online or digitally, LinkedIn has moved into analytics, with a wealth of submitted information to mine.
LinkedIn News recently published the Top 10 ‘hottest’ jobs in 10 of America’s largest cities. In the following, what is often most fascinating is the new career jargon.
Time and again, ‘artificial intelligence (AI) engineer’ appears among the Top 10 fastest-growth jobs in the chosen cities. It is number one in New York, Dallas, and San Francisco; and number two in Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles. AI engineers are said to “design, develop, and implement AI models and algorithms to optimize processes and solve complex problems.”
In San Francisco, a ‘head of AI’ position is ranked number three and in New York, it is in ninth spot. In San Francisco, an ‘AI researcher’ is number seven. Welcome to the new world of work, which may or may not leave many of us redundant or, on a more positive note, freer to concentrate on sideline or leisure-time activities.
Continuing in the high-tech sphere, in Atlanta, ‘head of information technology’ is number one; in Chicago, ‘data center technician’ is number one; and in Philadelphia, ‘quantitative analyst’ is number two, and ‘cyber security specialist’, is number four. (According to LinkedIn, a ‘quant analyst’ applies mathematical and statistical methods to analyze financial data and develop models.)
Where do construction-related endeavors stand in this new hierarchy? Thankfully, it turns out there is a strong presence for building-tied work, although sometimes the connection appears tenuous. Not so in Chicago where ‘construction superintendent’ is ranked third among current hottest jobs. Nor in Washington, D.C., where ‘architect’ is number four.
The construction connection exists but requires a broader understanding (i.e., realizing the HVAC implications) for ‘electro-mechanical technician’ within the top several spots in Dallas. The same goes for ‘community sales manager’, which focuses on real estate relationship-building, also in Dallas, and near the pinnacle. In Washington, D.C., the ‘transportation planner’ designation claims third spot, while in San Francisco, it seizes sixth.
Some of the other occupations appearing among the Top 10 ‘hottest’ in the highlighted cities include: ‘environmental engineers and analysts’ in Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington; ‘litigation and claims attorneys’ in New York and Chicago; ‘grants administrators and coordinators’ in New York, Philadelphia, and Boston; ‘debt and credit consultants and managers’ in Chicago and Los Angeles; anesthesiologists in Chicago and San Francisco; and mental health therapists in Boston and Dallas.
Finally, two other forces are stirring up the U.S. labor market and turning it into a cauldron of uncertainty. One is efforts to reduce the gender disparity in certain job categories. The other concerns the tug of war between return-to-office or RTO directives and what many employees have learned to deeply appreciate, remote or hybrid work, for the convenience afforded their overall lifestyles.
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