TORONTO — A new article by Altus Group, prepared for the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA), states without significant intervention to jump-start the housing sector, almost 50 per cent of residential construction sector jobs in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are at risk.
It also reveals without action, by 2027, housing starts could fall by more than 60 per cent versus 2024 levels.
What’s more, construction investment could drop by over $10 billion in the GTA.
“The pipeline of future housing supply for the GTA is at risk, along with the livelihood of 41,000 workers in the region and billions of dollars of investments,” said Dave Wilkes, president and CEO of BILD, in a statement. “Alongside this massive risk we now know, due to economic analysis undertaken on the cost for governments to eliminate the GST/HST on new homes, that the provincial and federal governments can mitigate against this by treating the new home buyers of today more equitably.”
Prepared by the Missing Middle Initiative, Altus estimated the total cost to extend GST/HST relief to all owner-occupied new home purchases to be $2 billion nationally and $900 million provincially.
“This one measure taken in tandem by the province and federal government can immediately lower housing costs, jump-start demand, and protect against future supply shocks that spike prices,” added Scott Andison, CEO of the OHBA. “Parking the generational equality and affordability issues, it’s important to remember that the government cost estimates are province-wide and nationwide, with housing starts in the GTA being approximately 20 to 25 per cent of the national average and 40 to 45 per cent of the provincial average. That means for less than a billion dollars governments can protect at least 41,000 jobs, 23,000 annual starts, and over $10 billion in investment.”
The two associations state the time for action on the GST/HST exemption for all new housing, both provincially and federally, is now.
Altus Group’s paper can be found here.
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