U.S. Put-in-place Construction Spending Sprightlier in November

After a stretch of several months earlier in the second half of 2017, when many of the Census Bureau’s sub-category put-in-place (PIP) construction spending numbers stalled, some sprightlier results were recorded once again in November.

2018-01-18-US-Put-in-Place-Nov-2017

Given that 11 of last year’s 12 months have now been measured, the 2017 over 2016 year-end percentage-change for total construction will almost certainly be close to +5.0%. All the increase will have originated in the residential sector, +11.0%, with non-residential remaining flat.

It’s important to note, however, (i.e., from accompanying Table 1) that with respect to latest three-month results, non-residential work has been staging a comeback. For latest 3-months over previous 3-months (annualized), ‘total’, residential and non-residential are almost the same, only slightly below +9.0%

‘Speed Up / Slow Down’ Table:

The percentage levels and changes in Table 1 are based on the Census Bureau’s seasonally-adjusted (SA) November 2017 and earlier put-in-place construction statistics. ‘Put-in-place’ as a concept is meant to mirror work-in-process or progress payments as projects proceed.

For each type-of-structure, Table 1 takes the behind-the-scenes put-in-place data and compares the percentage changes of latest-12-months-over-previous-12-months versus latest-three-months-over-previous-three-months (annualized).

If the three-month percent change exceeds the 12-month percent change, then construction activity in that type-of-structure category is speeding up. A check mark is entered in the far-right column. If the opposite is occurring, a check mark is entered in the ‘slowing down’ column.

If a type-of-structure category has a latest 3-month percent-change that is negative, but less negative, than its 12-month percent-change, such a circumstance is also considered to be an instance of ‘speeding up’ and warrants a check mark in the right-hand column. (Or, if it’s turning more negative, then it’s ‘slowing down’ further.)

If the percentage changes for a type-of-structure swing from negative to positive, or vice versa, then it’s obvious where the check mark should go.

Table 1: U.S. Put-in-place Construction Investment − November, 2017
Based on ‘current’ (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) $s, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)

	Weighting of type-of-structure category (% of total $s)	Year to date 2017/ Year to date 2016 (from monthly averages of SAAR data)	Latest 12 mons vs. previous 12 mons	Latest 3 mons vs. previous 3 mons (annualized)	Slowing Down 1 of 3 ‘Total’ categories / 7 of 16 sub-categories	Speeding Up 2 of 3 ‘Total’ categories / 8 of 16 sub- categories

Total Construction	100.0%	4.2%	4.6%	8.8%		✔
Total Residential	42.8%	10.9%	11.0%	8.9%	✔
Total Nonresidential	57.2%	-0.2%	0.3%	8.6%		✔
Lodging	2.3%	6.7%	8.0%	6.2%	✔
Office	5.6%	4.0%	5.8%	-5.8%	✔
Commercial (retail)	7.0%	14.3%	15.1%	2.3%	✔
Health care	3.3%	3.3%	3.2%	17.3%		✔
Educational	7.9%	3.3%	3.6%	39.6%		✔
Religious	0.3%	-7.6%	-6.8%	-14.3%	✔
Public safety	0.7%	2.3%	2.5%	35.3%		✔
Amusement and recreation	1.8%	4.8%	5.3%	-1.9%	✔
Transportation	3.7%	2.8%	2.3%	44.7%		✔
Communication	1.8%	4.4%	4.5%	-6.2%	✔
Power (electric; oil & gas)	7.7%	-5.6%	-4.2%	-6.5%	✔
Highway and street	7.0%	-4.0%	-4.3%	13.0%		✔
Sewage and waste disposal	1.7%	-15.5%	-15.6%	26.7%		✔
Water supply	0.9%	-9.6%	-8.7%	4.0%		✔
Conservation and development	0.6%	-7.7%	-5.9%	63.8%		✔
Manufacturing	4.9%	-12.2%	-11.7%	-11.4%

In the final two columns, if there is no check mark in the cell, then the type-of-structure category has stayed within 1.0%, up or down.
A negative that becomes more negative is considered to be ‘slowing down’; if less negative, then ‘speeding up’.

Data source: Census Bureau / Table: ConstructConnect

November’s Results:

In the comparison of latest-3-months versus latest-12-months, 7 of the 16 sub-categories of construction ‘slowed’ in November, while eight ‘speeded up’. In other words, there was a mildly positive balance.

‘Lodging’ (moving from +8.0% to +6.2%), ‘office’ (from +5.8% to -5.8%), ‘commercial/retail’ (from +15.1% to +2.3%), ‘amusement and recreation’ (from +5.3% to -1.9%) and ‘power’ (from -4.2% to -6.5%) have all ‘slowed down’.

Providing counterweight, however, have been a half-dozen other major sub-categories: ‘health care’ (moving from +3.2% to +17.3%); ‘educational’ (from +3.6% to +39.6%); ‘public safety’ (from +2.5% to +35.3%); ‘transportation’ (from +2.3% to +44.7%); ‘highway and street’ (from -4.3% to +13.0%); and ‘sewage and waste disposal’ (from -15.6% to +26.7%).

Especially striking from the above paragraph are the super-charged latest-3-month results for ‘educational’, ‘public safety’ and ‘transportation’.

‘Manufacturing’ has stayed in decline, but at least its degree of retreat has held steady (i.e., barely moving from -11.7% to -11.4%).