The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes From the Trenches

There are currently two crises underway simultaneously. The advance of the novel coronavirus is taking a terrible toll in terms of physical and emotional well-being. At the same time, job losses resulting from ‘social distancing’ are sending the economy into a tailspin. To fight on both fronts, governments are advancing rescue packages of never-seen-before dimensions. Every day, the tremendous number of factors in play reconfigure in a new way. These ‘from the trenches’ notes attempt to shed some light along a murky pathway.

When ‘testing’ is mentioned concerning the coronavirus, it’s important to know that there are two kinds. There’s diagnostic testing, which inserts a thin swab deep into the nasal sinus cavity, to determine if someone is currently in the grip of the virus. Then there’s a blood sample test to establish if one has built up immunity based on a storehouse of immunoglobulins. (There are two ‘makes’ of antibodies, a first-attack kind and a second wait-in-the wings-in-case-the-devil-returns kind.) The more people there are with antibodies, the bigger the potential labor pool to restart the economy. By the way, how long the effectiveness of the second more-crucial type of antibody lasts is still unknown.

If you check the Uber app on your phone, you’ll probably find there are still a few drivers willing to take you somewhere, to do something … maybe to a workplace judged ‘essential’, or to a medical appointment, or to buy groceries. Depending on which states and/or provinces re-open soonest, they may also be able to motor you to a bowling alley, bingo parlor or tattoo artist.

Thanks to technological innovation, a lot of the things we used to do, we no longer need to do.

We no longer need to go to the office to work. Employment from home has become a proven viable alternative.
We no longer need to go to a shopping mall to buy items. We can purchase just about anything over the Internet.
We no longer need to be present on a campus to learn. We can receive high-level instruction from a quality teacher online.

What we’ve also been discovering during this pandemic, however, is that at least half of the justification for going to an office, a mall or a school is the social aspect. We like mixing with colleagues, friends and casual acquaintances, met in passing. We like seeing and being seen. Telling truths and speaking the odd falsehood. Kibitzing and joshing. Those are the spicy ingredients in our lives that are so deeply missed when absent.

While providing comfort in the moment, to assume that social affairs will go right back to the way they were before the coronavirus struck will surely prove naïve.

Read the previous article here: The Economy Under COVID-19: Notes from the Trenches – May 4, 2020.

Alex Carrick is Chief Economist for ConstructConnect. He has delivered presentations throughout North America on the U.S., Canadian and world construction outlooks. Mr. Carrick has been with the company since 1985. Links to his numerous articles are featured on Twitter @ConstructConnx, which has 50,000 followers.